Clinton, Edwards, Obama..... Leaders, Likeable, Winnable?

Posted by Mark Silva at 8:25 am CST

If many Democrats are feeling uneasy these days, it may have something to do with the way they perceive their front-runners in the campaign for the party's 2008 presidential nomination.

While likely Democratic votes view Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York as most likely to win the party's nomination, and while Clinton out-paces Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois and former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina in a number of measures -- with many more voters viewing Clinton as most qualified to be president -- a new survey shows that Obama is viewed as more likeable than Clinton. The survey also accords the senator from Illinois higher ethical standards than the senator from New York.

"The most promising dimension for Obama, and by contrast Clinton's weakest area, is with respect to human relations,'' says a report from the Gallup Poll on its survey that shows Clinton rated not only as most qualified among likely Democratic voters, but also the strongest leader, best debater, best in a crisis and best manager. Yet another telling response: Fewer than 50 percent of those likely Democratic voters surveyed say Clinton has the best chance of beating the Republican nominee. And then again, only 27 percent perceive Edwards as having the best chance, 21 percent Obama. For more on the way Democrats are sizing up the three, see the survey:

January 31, 2007

Clinton Eclipses Obama and Edwards on Leadership
Obama enjoys a softer image as likable, a uniter

by Lydia Saad

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Sen. Hillary Clinton's front-runner status in the opening chapter of the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination race -- she leads with 29% of Democrats compared with 18% for Sen. Barack Obama and 13% for former Sen. John Edwards -- carries over into her dominance over the other two top Democratic contenders in perceived leadership qualities.

A new Gallup Panel survey asked Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents to compare Clinton, Obama, and Edwards on 15 different positive personal characteristics. Of these, Clinton is perceived to best exemplify eight characteristics, she and Obama are about tied on four, and Obama leads on three.

Among the characteristics and qualities tested, Clinton's strong points are almost uniformly related to presidential leadership. She holds a formidable lead on many items in this category, including being qualified to be president and being a strong leader.

Obama leads on personal warmth, but with much slimmer margins than what Clinton enjoys for leadership. Democrats are most likely to choose Obama as the one who would do the most to unite the country and as the most likable. Edwards ranks third on most dimensions, but does relatively better in perceptions of how the candidates are received beyond the party base -- by Congress, with foreign leaders, and the general public.

Clinton's Competency

Clinton is widely perceived among Democrats as having what it takes to do the job of president. Her greatest strength is the perception that she is "the most qualified to be president." Six in 10 Democrats say this quality most applies to Clinton, versus 21% naming Edwards and 13% choosing Obama.

Other related Clinton strengths are that she is widely perceived as the "strongest leader," would perform best in the debates, would be best in a crisis, would manage the government most effectively, and would work the best with Congress.

Additionally, by a 36-point margin over Edwards and a 42-point lead over Obama, Clinton enjoys a solid reputation as the candidate to beat for the 2008 Democratic nomination. Fifty-eight percent of Democrats believe Clinton has the best chance of winning the nomination. She enjoys a slightly smaller lead on being best able to defeat the Republican nominee in the 2008 general election, with 44% choosing Clinton, 27% Edwards, and 21% Obama.

Hillary Clinton Image Strengths

These are the percentages rating the candidates in each of these categories:

Most qualified to be president:

Clinton: 61
Edwards: 21
Obama: 13

Is the strongest leader:

Clinton: 59
Edwards: 15
Obama: 22

Has the best chance of winning the Democratic presidential nomination in 2008:

Clinton: 58
Edwards: 22
Obama: 16

Would perform the best in debates:

Clinton: 57
Edwards: 10
Obama: 29

Would be the best in a crisis:

Clinton: 54
Edwards: 20
Obama: 20

Would manage the government most effectively:

Clinton: 53
Edwards: 21
Obama: 21

Would work the best with Congress:

Clinton: 46
Edwards: 25
Obama: 25

Has the best chance of beating the Republican nominee in the 2008 presidential election:

Clinton: 44
Edwards: 27
Obama: 21

Not only is Clinton perceived as having the best leadership credentials, but according to the same Jan. 25-28, 2007, Gallup Panel survey, she is chosen over the other two candidates as best able to handle 9 of 10 specific issues across a broad spectrum of policy areas. As discussed in another article on galluppoll.com, she is preferred by an outright majority of Democrats on healthcare, education, the economy, and energy and the environment. (See "Democrats Give Clinton Edge on Most Issues Over Obama, Edwards" in Related Items.) She holds smaller leads on terrorism, the situation in Iraq, relations with other countries, taxes, and crime. Only on "moral values issues" does one of the other candidates -- Obama -- tie with Clinton on perceived ability to handle an issue.

Competitive Image Territory

Gallup finds more parity among the three top Democrats with respect to perceptions of who would most likely be respected by leaders of other countries, who would run the most positive campaign, and who best understands the problems that ordinary Americans face.

Clinton and Obama are closely matched on these dimensions, while at least 20% choose Edwards on all but public speaking. These data suggest Clinton strategists might seek to brush up her image in these areas, and that Obama strategists might seek to emphasize them to play to his strengths.

Cultivating a Human Touch

The most promising dimension for Obama, and by contrast Clinton's weakest area, is with respect to human relations. This is apparently a weakness the Clinton campaign seems well aware of, as exemplified by framing her campaign as a "conversation" that she will take to people's living rooms via her Web site. As CNN political correspondent Candy Crowley recently opined, the backdrop for Clinton's presidential exploratory announcement -- "the warm lighting and the big sofa" -- was "an obvious attempt to try to connect and relate to people, many of whom think that she comes across as aloof, and that there's some sort of barrier there."

According to the Gallup survey, only 31% of Democrats today choose Clinton as the most likable of the three candidates tested. Obama wins this category with 41%, while Edwards is not far behind Clinton, with 24%. The results are similar to perceptions of which of the three would do the most to unite the country.

Obama also leads Clinton -- 39% vs. 28% -- as being perceived to have the highest ethical standards. This may reflect Clinton's personal association with legal and ethical problems during the Clinton White House, such as the Whitewater land deal, "Filegate," and the removal of White House gifts at the end of Bill Clinton's presidency.

Survey Methods

Results for this panel study are based on telephone interviews with 504 Democrats or Democratic leaners, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 25-28, 2007. Respondents were randomly drawn from Gallup's nationally representative household panel, which was originally recruited through random selection methods. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.