by Mark Silva
Sen. Hillary Clinton's campaign, cranking up its bid for the Pennsylvania primary, maintains that her apparent advantage there means that rival Sen. Barack Obama cannot claim the White House in November.
"We believe the road to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue goes straight through Pennsylvania,’’ Mark Penn, chief strategist for the Clinton campaign, said on a phone call with reporters just now. And if Obama can’t win there, he asked, how can he win the White House?
"No Democrat has won the presidency without winning Pennsylvania since 1948,'' Penn said. "Sen. Obama really can’t win the general election.’’
Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, Clinton's key supporter in the Keystone state, said on the call just now that "there are four states that are critical...Florida, Ohio Pennsylvania and Michigan... For a Democrat to win, we basically have to win three of those four states
"Holding Pennsyvlania is key,'' Rendell said. "If you're looking for a state that's a true test of someone's national appeal, it's Pennsylvania.''
Hold on for this ride. It's a long one. The primary is April 22.







Comments
I read that Obama doesn't put much on winning Pennsylvania. Why would he, the hard working middle-class worker isn't in his criteria, of voter that count. No wonder, he real doesn't want re-do in Michigan or Florida!
Posted by: jp,michigan | March 13, 2008 11:56 AM
I love the way the Clinton campaign claims that every bit of propaganda they put out is the truth!!! Well actually I don't. I thin she a dirtbag who will do anything to satisfy her GIANT EGO. Power freak that woman is. She's becoming the Jason or better yet Michael Myers of politics. The thing that won't go away!!!
"There are people in the party who are very concerned about this turning into some kind of a Bataan Death March."
David Axlerod
The Bataan Death March continues!!!
Posted by: Hillary's Death March | March 13, 2008 12:04 PM
"For a Democrat to win, we basically have to win three of those four states"
Jeebus these people are stupid. Let's toss the successful 50 state strategy and go back to only campaigning in 'battleground' states. That worked SO well for Gore and Kerry after all. Let's tell all the other states that followed the rules, so sad, too bad, you're not a battleground state.
In fact, let's call it the 'Insult 45 state strategy'.
Posted by: weinerdog43 | March 13, 2008 12:12 PM
One thing that has been overlooked is the nominees ability to attract the middle 40%-60% of the population that is not part of either party.
Most of the democratic primaries have been open primaries and from what I have seen of the different polls and stitistical analysis' that Obama is in the lead because of his ability to bring in the independent/crossover voters.
There have been more articles written recently that point out the differences in winning a primary versus a general election. The two don't necessarily follow each other.
one thing that is clear to me and may be more so for other people soon is that this scorched earth policy is going to hurt the Democrats come November unless they cut it out.
Statistically Clinton will not be able to overtake Obama without huge wins (60-64% versus 40-35%). That is not likely to happen.
The convention will come down to Superdelegates.
That said, I am not saying Obama winning is inevitable, but the divisiveness is feeding the Republicans votes by doing their work for them.
The Democrats are most likely to take the west coast and the northeast and IL. They are killing themselves in the contested states like TX,OH,PA,FL where the independents can sway it for them, but right now they are so myopic they can't see the forest for the trees. They are taking the general election for granted and that is their biggest mistake.
Posted by: Todd M | March 13, 2008 12:21 PM
Hillary and Bill Clinton are "monster(s). There is nothing they would not do to regain the White House. Including "pimping" out Chelsea; their one and only sad little pathetic offspring.
Posted by: Hedcutter | March 13, 2008 12:24 PM
I live in Florida and I voted for Hillary in the Democratic primary in January.
If a re-vote is decided in Florida, I WILL VOTE AGAIN FOR HILLARY. The Democratic party and both candidates should support this idea since they all have an interest in resolving this issue.
HILLARY FOR PRESIDENT !!!
Posted by: tsr | March 13, 2008 12:30 PM
"he real doesn't want re-do in Michigan or Florida!
Posted by: jp,michigan"
Florida and Michigan waded in knowing the consequences: 'Violate the rules and your vote will not count'. So as punishment the DNC should give them exactly what they violated the rules to get: 'An important role in choosing the Democratic nominee'? Yall gambled and lost!!! Try a do-over in Vegas.
Posted by: Hedcutter | March 13, 2008 12:32 PM
No WONDER the Democrats ( "I don't belong to any organized party, I'm a Democrat ! :)" ) are in favor of gun control. The always aim at, and shoot, their feet !
Posted by: Daniel P. From Long Island, N.Y. | March 13, 2008 12:32 PM
Obama should name Edwards his running mate NOW and together they would win the white male labor vote. That would end all of this and end Clinton's game of naming Obama vice president.
Clinton can't win without lying and spin.
Posted by: John K | March 13, 2008 12:43 PM
What a worthless article
Posted by: bt | March 13, 2008 12:47 PM
I just wish the Post Office could issue a stamp for Billy Boy
Posted by: coldiniowa | March 13, 2008 12:48 PM
This just in: Clinton campaign spokesman says that nobody can win in November unless their name rhymes with "Flinton."
"And 'Obama' definitely doesn't rhyme with 'Flinton," he added.
Gee, better write a news story and pretend it's all true!
Posted by: fjfjdvdv | March 13, 2008 12:48 PM
The fact is there is no path to 1600 Pennsylvania even with Penn. This is the usual spin to the media so they can keep their doomed campaign afloat. Sorry Monsters it over !! The end of the Bush/Clinton dynasty at last.
Posted by: Dave in FL | March 13, 2008 12:51 PM
The Florida and Michigan delegates will be seated as is, if Penn voters choos Obama.
I must encourage my friends from Pitt, to Philly, to Harrisburg, to Hershey. Vote Obama. He has inspired a new energy in the democratic party. His policies are point on. Sure he hasn't been in D.C. for as long as Clinton or McCain, but check his record; he has what it takes.
Pennsylvania look at the candidates and think about the future. Let's unite the country behind a progressive-- but non-partisan-- agenda.
Obama 2008
Posted by: Chris Stewart | March 13, 2008 12:52 PM
I wonder if Chelsea would be interested in being an intern for Obama when he is ine the White House
Posted by: coldiniowa | March 13, 2008 12:56 PM
Let’s see its 3:00 AM and Hillary is in bed when the call comes in… Bill in another room Hillary screams Bill are you going to get that? Oh its who oh yeah one of those black leaders that have no business being in power! Just what our country needs to re-build credibility in the world, I’m a white republican that lives in Florida and will vote for Obama if he wins the nomination. However, if it is Hilary, then my vote will go for McCain because she brings nothing to the table and will further divide our government as well as our country.
Posted by: Fred Pilch | March 13, 2008 1:07 PM
Even if Hillary does win Pennsylvania, it's still going to be very hard for her to win. Check out this video about the delegate math. I think CNN is giving Hillary too much credit here.
http://campaigncircus.com/video_player.php?v=8390
Posted by: kberly7568 | March 13, 2008 1:40 PM
HRC reminds me of a basketball team that is behind, with time running out. But, having made more 3 point shots than the opponent, declares during a timeout, "Lets say the team that's made the most 3 pointers is the winner"
Posted by: Kent Duffy | March 13, 2008 2:32 PM
Isn't the key winning these states in the general election in November?
I think the Clinton campaign is trying to conflate wining in the primary and winning in the general election in order to confuse people.
Do they really think that if Penn finishes 52%-48% for Clinton this would mean Obama could not carry the state in the general election or vice versa?
Barring some huge shift in superdelagates or some scandal I don't think this will be decided anytime soon.
I think Clinton is just trying to set a false criteria in order to try and convince people that Obama cannot win and she should be the nominee, if he does not carry Penn.
Posted by: Jon | March 13, 2008 2:43 PM
DON'T BE DUPED!!!
Large numbers of Republicans have been voting for Barack Obama in the DEMOCRATIC primaries, and caucuses. Because they feel he would be a weaker opponent against John McCain. And because they feel that a Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama ticket would be unbeatable. And also because with a Clinton and Obama ticket you are almost 100% certain to get quality, affordable universal health care very soon.
But first, all of you have to make certain that Hillary Clinton takes the democratic nomination and then the Whitehouse. NOW! is the time. THIS! is the moment you have all been working, and waiting for. You can do this America. “Carpe diem” (harvest the day).
I think Hillary Clinton see’s a beautiful world of plenty, and comfort for all. She is a woman, and a mother. And it’s time America. Do this for your-self, and your children’s future. You will have to work together on this and be aggressive, relentless, and creative. Americans face an even worse catastrophe ahead than the one you are living through now.
You see, the medical and insurance industry mostly support the republicans with the money they ripped off from you. And they don’t want you to have quality, affordable universal health care. They want to be able to continue to rip you off, and kill you and your children by continuing to deny you life saving medical care that you have already paid for. So they can continue to make more immoral profits for them-self.
Hillary Clinton has actually won by much larger margins than the vote totals showed. And lost by much smaller vote margins than the vote totals showed. Her delegate count is actually much higher than it shows. And higher than Obama’s. HILLARY CLINTON IS ALREADY THE TRUE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE!
As much as 30% of Obama's primary, and caucus votes are Republicans trying to choose the weakest democratic candidate for McCain to run against. These Republicans have been gaming the caucuses where it is easier to vote cheat. This is why Obama has not been able to win the BIG! states primaries. Even with Republican vote cheating help.
Hillary Clinton has been out manned, out gunned, and out spent 2 and 3 to 1. Yet Obama has only been able to manage a very tenuous, and questionable tie with Hillary Clinton.
If Obama is the democratic nominee for the national election in November he will be slaughtered. Because the Republican vote cheating help will suddenly evaporate. All of this vote fraud and republican manipulation has made Obama falsely look like a much stronger candidate than he really is. YOUNG PEOPLE. DON’T BE DUPED! Think about it. You have the most to lose.
The democratic party needs to fix this outrage. I suggest a Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama ticket now! Everyone needs to throw all your support to Hillary Clinton NOW! So you can end this outrage against YOU the voter, and against democracy.
I think Barack Obama has a once in a life time chance to make the ultimate historic gesture for unity, and change in America by accepting Hillary Clinton’s offer as running mate. Such an act now would for ever seal Barack Obama’s place at the top of the list of Americas all time great leaders, and unifiers for all of history. But the time to act is soon.
The democratic party, and the super-delegates have a decision to make. Are the democrats, and the democratic party going to choose the DEMOCRATIC party nominee to fight for the American people. Or are the republicans going to choose the DEMOCRATIC party nominee through vote fraud, and gaming the DEMOCRATIC party primaries, and caucuses.
Fortunately the Clinton’s have been able to hold on against this fraudulent outrage with those repeated dramatic comebacks of Hillary Clinton’s. Only the Clinton’s are that resourceful, and strong. Hillary Clinton is your NOMINEE. They are the best I have ever seen.
“This is not a game” (Hillary Clinton)
Sincerely
jacksmith...
Posted by: jacksmith | March 13, 2008 2:57 PM
The white voters will prevail for the WHITE Candidate Sen Clinton.
Sen Clinton suports WHITES first!
Go Hillary GO!
Vote for Hillary to preserve our White Heritage
Posted by: dwezeldub | March 13, 2008 3:51 PM
SurveyUSA did state-by-state polling in every state and developed an electoral map if the election was held today between Obama and McCain. Obama doesn't win Pennsylvania but he does win the election -- by over 20 electoral votes.
http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/03/06/electoral-math-as-of-030608-obama-280-mccain-258/
Rather than the "important" Pennsylvania, Obama picks up a much wider array of states than Clinton does including purple states such as Iowa, Colorado and Virginia.
Clinton also wins (with Pennsylvania) but by a narrower margin (14 EV) and with a run completely dependant upon her taking Florida, which probably won't happen if McCain taps Crist as VP. In fact, Flordia polling by Rasmussen shows Clinton losing Florida by a considerable amount.
http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/03/06/electoral-math-as-of-030608-clinton-276-mccain-262/
You'll notice that either candidate wins agains McCain in the Democratic anchors of California, New York and Illinois, both win Ohio and both lose Texas, thus making Clinton's "Big State" argument pretty laughable. Either candidate will win them comfortably and her winning by larger margins doesn't make her more electable. Rather, Obama's wins in smaller states (Colorado, Washinton, Iowa, Virgina, North Dakota, etc) that Clinton will lose in is what makes him far more powerful in the general election.
This is, of course, a poll from over six months away from the general election and we might find out that Obama once killed a man in a barfight or McCain might save a busload of orphans or Clinton might sponsor a bill to legalize crack cocaine. But the voter feelings right now definately reflect a strength for Obama over Clinton and all of her crowing about states either would win anyway doesn't change that.
As an aside, when is the Tribune going to make a real story out of Obama winning Texas in terms of delegates? Although I suppose the official counts don't come out until the end of the month so a nice story about Obama winning the Texas delegate count halfway to April 22 might be a fun story.
Posted by: Jeff V. | March 13, 2008 3:56 PM
jacksmith: You must have been reading my comments for months, because what is in your post is almost exactly what I have been posting for months. I have felt mighty lonely and sure am glad to have some help in trying to deal with so many "Hillary Haters" that are all over the Blogs. Thanks.
Posted by: lylepink | March 13, 2008 4:11 PM
What is this screwed up argument?
That losing in a Democratic primary amongst Democrats would mean Obama couldn't win the state in the general?
Spin, spin, spin all you like Mark Penn
Posted by: Chris | March 13, 2008 4:19 PM
THE WAR IN IRAQ IS HAVING SERIOUS NEGATIVE EFFECTS ON OUR ECONOMY and that those who voted for the war (hillary) should be to blame, in part, for the state of the US economy.
Look how the WAR IN IRAQ is affecting the U.S.economy...
$3,000,000,000…$3 billion PER WEEK! That is the amount America is paying for the Iraq War, money that should have been used here, at home.
Add to this:
Interest. We are financing the war with borrowed money (e.g. treasuries) so in actuality, we're the war is costing the United States MORE than $ 3 billion PER WEEK.
Higher oil and energy prices. Instability in Iraq is adding roughly 30 dollars per barrel as a premium.
High oil prices mean high utility bills. Due to high oil prices, demand shifts to other sources of energy - nat gas, coal, etc. - and greater demand will raise the equilibrium price of all sources of energy -- Can you say high energy bills?
Higher oil prices (a raw material used in the production of many goods, fertilizers, gasoline, diesel, plastics, etc.) mean higher prices of goods and services -- Can you say INFLATION?
Higher oil prices mean a higher trade deficit because most of our oil comes from foreign sources. A higher trade deficit means more money is leaving the country than is coming into the country -- Can you say 'Goodbye money!'
Our dollar is weak and getting weaker. Since we have a trade deficit and is growing in large part to the rising cost of imported oil, the value of goods and services we import exceeds the value of goods we export. You know that foreign car you're thinking of buying or the computer you're using, or that trip abroad you've been thinking of taking....well, guess what? It is going to cost more, Ceteris Peribus, because the dollar is weak, weak, weak.
Lastly, how do you think the world views our country because of this war? The evidence was weak and circumstantial, yet we rushed into war with Iraq thanks to Hillary’s authorization.
Posted by: Mary Berningham | March 13, 2008 5:20 PM
BOTH Hillary and Obama lose Penn. in a General according to polls! Double digits. Tell me 5 weeks of negative campaigning is going to help that any.
Posted by: Penny | March 13, 2008 11:04 PM
Was the Iraq war Hillary's idea? No. George W. Bush authorized the war. History will give Bush the credit. We really don't know how Obama would have voted since he wasn't a Senator at the time. He never spoke out against the war once he was in the Senate. Why not?
Posted by: goldenstate | March 14, 2008 12:46 AM
It's excellent they will debate again after all the messes of recent weeks. Obama can make her explain these on camera. And her tax returns will have been released the day before. This could be a bloodbath. Expect no press about this issues. A lot on the bloodbath.
Bill Clinton Went On Rush Limbaugh’s Show Day Of Texas Primary
http://themoderatevoice.com/media/talk-radio/rush-limbaugh/18313/bill-clinton-went-on-rush-limbaughs-show-day-of-texas-primary/
Ex-President Clinton Talks to WBAP's Mark Davis
http://www.wbap.com/Article.asp?id=606119&spid=6051
They want the repubs to vote for her. Even with the 'We're Already Screwed. Vote Hillary" jpeg in the middle of the page. So much for party unity. This is yet another story the press missed.
Anatomy of a leak: What we know about NAFTA-gate
http://www.cbc.ca/news/reportsfromabroad/macdonald/20080310.html
CBC Canada. March 10, 2008
When a group of reporters from CTV quizzed Brodie about what such declarations meant to Canada, he apparently replied that Ottawa was not worried. Hillary Clinton's people had been in touch, he said, reassuring Canadian officials that they should not take such campaign rhetoric seriously. A CTV reporter privy to the conversation would later publicly confirm what Brodie said.
But an offhand remark by a political staffer is just a starting point so CTV brought Tom Clark, the network's bureau chief in Washington, into the picture. Clark is known to be on friendly terms with ambassador Wilson.
In short order, Clark contacted Wilson, putting to him the tip from Ottawa. We know this because the embassy later confirmed the call. The actual conversation between the two men remains a private discussion, but by the time Clark went to air Wednesday night, his angle was no longer Clinton. It was Obama.
An embassy official acknowledged that diplomats here in the U.S. do reach out to campaign advisers, but stressed that at no time had any adviser suggested Barack Obama was misleading voters about his true intentions.
There was no mention, of course, about ambassador Michael Wilson's chat with the CTV's Tom Clark.
And in any event, Hillary Clinton and Republican John McCain weren't listening. Both of them latched onto the hypocrisy angle and rode it hard.
In the days to come, the problem became worse for Obama. CTV, citing sources "at the highest level of the Canadian government," changed its story, naming Goolsbee as the Obama adviser, but substituting Chicago Consul General Georges Rioux as the Canadian contact.
As the questions continued, two news organizations wrote that Ian Brodie, Harper's chief of staff, had been CTV's original tipster. The stories generated a storm in the House of Commons, but what really interested the Obama campaign was how the story had so quickly morphed from a tip about Clinton to a story about Obama.
I asked Sally Southey, the Canadian embassy's spokeswoman in Washington, how it could be that CTV began with a tip about Clinton's campaign, but after a conversation with Michael Wilson, wound up reporting a distorted version of an Obama adviser's remarks.
That, she said, is a good question. But, she added: "All conversations the ambassador has on background with journalists are private."
Posted by: kravitz | March 14, 2008 2:41 AM
DON'T BE DUPED!!!
Large numbers of Republicans have been voting for Barack Obama in the DEMOCRATIC primaries, and caucuses.
Posted by: jacksmith | March 13, 2008 2:57 PM
Jacksmith = loser.
Posted by: Hillary or Monster | March 14, 2008 8:38 AM