by Mark Silva
Democrats are heading into November’s election with stronger “party identification” among voters than during either of the last two presidential election cycles, a new poll shows.
More than one third of those surveyed – 36 percent – identified themselves as Democrats, and just 27 percent identified themselves as Republicans in Pew Research Center surveys taken during the first two months of this year – with 5,566 people interviewed.
The Republican Party’s share of self-identified partisans has shrunk by six points since 2004 and represents the lowest level of people calling themselves Republicans in 16 years of polling by Pew.
The level of support for the Democratic Party has remained relatively stable: 36 percent in the latest surveys 35 percent called themselves Democrats in 2004 and 35 percent in 2000.
At the same time, the percentages calling themselves independents have increased: From 32 percent in 2004 to 37 percent now.
In the so-called “blue states,’’ those where Democratic nominee John Kerry won by at least five percentage points in 2004 -- the Democratic Party's advantage over Republican voters has nearly doubled from 10 points to 18 points, the surveys show.
The balance in “red states,’’ those where President Bush won by more than five points in 2004 -- has remained more stable. Throughout the last three election cycles, there have been roughly as many Democrats as Republicans in these 24 states collectively. Now, 33 percent of voters in these states call themselves Republicans, 33 percent call themselves Democrats and 34 percent sided with neither party.
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Comments
Bruce won't like this...oh wait....he doesn't believe in polls. He only believes the ones that claim his "senior moment" candidate is ahead. Did Joe tell him he was ahead?
Posted by: bill "Hussein" r. | March 21, 2008 7:43 AM
bill:
Somewhere there is a poll that Brucie can cite that will show that this poll is wrong.
Even if he has to make it up himself.
Posted by: BobinATL | March 21, 2008 9:11 AM
The driveby media put these kind of poll numbers out to avoid talking about Operation Chaos with Hil dumping on Obama and Obama dumping on Hil. I love it they may end up with a brokered convention and John McCain is leading in Rasmussen and Zogby polls by double digits. Meanwhile the Democrat Congress polls only at 21 percent say what Pelosi, Emmanuel, Reid and Durbin?
Jerry White, Springfield, IL
Posted by: Jerry White | March 21, 2008 9:49 AM
Jerry:
Operation Chaos?? What about Operation Alzheimer's with John "Purim is Halloween" McCain? And show me what polls show McCain leading Obama and Clinton by double digits - the last one I saw had McCain leading Obama by 4 and Clinton by 3.
Posted by: BobHusseininATL | March 21, 2008 10:11 AM
Bob I told you Rasmussen and Zogby do your own research. Jerry White,Springfield, IL
Posted by: Jerry White | March 21, 2008 2:23 PM
Well, here is a poll that the LIBune or Mark Silva would never report. Bill R and the rest of the Loons, I don't think you folks will like this reality:
Poll: Divisive Dem Contest Could Boost McCain
By Fred Lucas
CNSNews.com Staff Writer
March 21, 2008
(CNSNews.com) - The lengthy Democratic primary contest bodes well for Republican chances of holding the White House, a new poll suggests.
As Democratic Senators Barack Obama of Illinois and Hillary Clinton of New York slug it out for the nomination, many of their supporters -- at least in Pennsylvania, site of the next major primary -- aren't committed to the party's ticket in November, according to a Franklin & Marshall College Poll.
Among Obama supporters, 20 percent said they would vote for Sen. John McCain of Arizona, the Republican nominee, if Clinton beats their candidate for the nomination. Among Clinton supporters, 19 percent said they would support McCain in November if Obama is the Democratic nominee. (See poll)
The significant number of potential defectors underscores how divisive the Democratic primary has been.
Democrats won Pennsylvania in the 2000 and 2004 presidential races, but it was a competitive state in both election cycles. McCain, meanwhile, has touted his appeal to swing voters.
"Pennsylvania is a must-win state for a Democratic presidential nominee," Nathan Gonzalez, political editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, told Cybercast News Service. "If there is a significant weakness for a Democrat in Pennsylvania, it could indicate a weakness in Ohio or other key states."
Even a few months ago, the presidential race looked like a major uphill climb for any Republican candidate. But recent polls suggest a toss-up between McCain and either Democratic candidate.
Obama and Clinton both have many negatives, which doesn't make the Pennsylvania poll too surprising, said Doris Graber, a political science professor at the University of Illinois.
"Obama is very liberal, more liberal than we've seen on the campaign trail. Also, there is still racism out there," Graber told Cybercast News Service. "Hillary, we've known all along, has strong supporters. But there are also a lot of people who would never vote for her. There is some antipathy from the Clinton years. Some wouldn't vote for her because she's a woman."
Graber believes it is "almost a certainty" that the Obama-Clinton battle will be decided at the Democratic National Convention, which could drive a wedge through the party.
"Democratic voters could be persuaded not to vote for a candidate with vulnerabilities," she continued. "A vote for McCain wouldn't be that difficult. He does appeal to the middle."
However, Gonzales cautioned not to read too much into a single poll, or discount the desire of Democratic voters to move beyond the George W. Bush years, of which McCain has become the heir.
"This is a very personal and competitive Democratic primary," he said. "Clinton and Obama supporters have trouble seeing themselves with the other now. A healing period will have to happen."
Posted by: John D | March 21, 2008 3:11 PM