Obama's edge over McCain: 7 points: The Swamp
The Swamp

One week in to their five-month contest, Obama has gained a point a day.

Posted June 10, 2008 1:50 PM
Obama-McCain track June10

Obama's advantage represents a reversal of the position that McCain held in Gallup's daily tracking at the start of May.

The Swamp

by Mark Silva

One week after Sen. Barack Obama clinched the Democratic Party's presidential nomination, the Illinois Democrat has gained a significant and "fairly stable'' advantage over Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona in daily tracking polls.

The seven-point advantage that Obama holds over McCain in the latest three-day average in the Gallup Poll's daily track is now a shade larger than a six-point advantage that McCain held over Obama from April 27 to May 2 - the last and only time during a few months of Gallup tracking that McCain held the upper hand.

"Voting preferences have been fairly stable over the last three individual days of tracking polling, all conducted since Hillary Clinton officially suspended her candidacy and publicly endorsed Obama for president on Saturday,'' Jeff Jones of Gallup reports. "The seven percentage point advantage is Obama's largest to date since Gallup began tracking the general election in March.''

Obama holds a 48 to 41 precent advantage in the latest Gallup track, based on polling from Saturday through Monday. Gallup is interviewing at least 1,000 adults each day during 2008. The results from a three-day sample of 2,633 registered voters carries a possible margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

For more, see the Gallup Poll.

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Comments

Yeah, and six months ago the polls were making it sound like we would see a November showdown between Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton. And we still have the better part of five months to go until November. It makes me wonder whether polls are more valuable at gauging public opinion or in shaping it.


There's still a whole lot of time for Granpy McBush to repeatedly stick his foot in his mouth over and over again. The more Grandpa keeps up his storytellin' for the youngin's the more everyone's going to realize he's a schmuck.
Keep it coming Grandpy McBush, tell us all about the time you didn't know your banking buddy (Charles Keating) was ripping people off. This general election is going to be awesome.
http://s144.photobucket.com/albums/r163/InsultComicDog/?action=view¤t=flipflopsenilerant.jpg



"AMERICA SPEAKS"

51-44 MEANS AMERICA WON!!
50-44 MEANS AMERICA WON!
38 MILLION PRIMARY VOTERS MEANS AMERICA YOU'RE WINNING!
38 MILLION PRIMARY VOTERS MEANS AMERICA
WE HEAR YOU!
NO "IMMUNITY PROTECTION LIABILITY"
MEANS AMERICA YOU LOSE!
NO "IMMUNITY PROTECTION LIABILITY" MEANS THE GOP LOSES!
NO "IMMUNITY PROTECTION LIABILITY" MEANS THE CONSTITUTION WINS!
NO "IMMUNITY PROTECTION LIABILITY" MEANS PRIVACY WINS!
NO "IMMUNITY PROTECTION LIABILITY" MEANS DAVID ADDINGTON LAW" IS UNCONSTITUTIONAL!
NO "IMMUNITY PROTECTION LIABILITY" MEANS HABEAUS RIGHTS SURVIVE!
51-43 MEANS AMERICA WON!
50-44 MEANS AMERICA WON!
IT DOESN'T MATTER WHO VOTES, IT ONLY MATTERS IF A REPUBLICAN COUNTS THE VOTE!


Obama has still not produced his birth certificate. He may not be able to be President. We should demand to see it and not let him smooth talk himself out of it. There is a constitutional law here that has to be followed. And, the "rules are the rules"


Obama has still not produced his birth certificate. He may not be able to be President. We should demand to see it and not let him smooth talk himself out of it. There is a constitutional law here that has to be followed. And, the "rules are the rules"

Posted by: Pamela R | June 10, 2008 2:32 PM


Hey Mr Swamp censor, you dump posts that have absolutely nothing wrong with them, unless you're a Republican, and then you let garbage like this (see above) go through?


Obama has still not produced his birth certificate. He may not be able to be President. We should demand to see it and not let him smooth talk himself out of it. There is a constitutional law here that has to be followed. And, the "rules are the rules"

Posted by: Pamela R | June 10, 2008 2:32 PM


McCain was born in Panama and he may not be able to be President. Have we figured out if he's legally able to even be President yet?
There is a constitutional law here that has to be followed and the "rules are rules".


John W.,


In answer to your poll musing - will you voting for Rudy or Hillary?


More lies from the right wing he was born in the US! He is not a terrorist enough lies. We had enough of your WMD lies and other BS! We need a change and a old guy that will continue the Titanic route is NOT IT!


Posted by: John W. | June 10, 2008 2:18 PM

You're right, things will have changed dramatically by November. McCain will be 30 points down by them. The more the american people see how little difference there is between McCain policies and Bush's policies, the more he is going to drop like a stone. Those policies have been soundly rejected by the american people, as they will soundly reject John McCain.


AN AMERICAN STORY

It is wonderful that the World loves America under the leadership of Barack Obama and looks forward to cooperating with America again in friendship, peace and economics.

America, Europe, Asia, South America and the World are looking forward to cooperating and working with Barack Obama.

Harvard Scholar Barack Obama will be the smartest and most beloved President in American History.

America Loves Barack Obama
America Loves Barack Obama
America Loves Barack Obama

Germany Loves Barack Obama
Germany Loves Barack Obama
Germany Loves Barack Obama

France Loves Barack Obama
France Loves Barack Obama
France Loves Barack Obama

England Loves Barack Obama
England Loves Barack Obama
England Loves Barack Obama

Russia Loves Barack Obama
Russia Loves Barack Obama
Russia Loves Barack Obama

Italy Loves Barack Obama
Italy Loves Barack Obama
Italy Loves Barack Obama

Spain Loves Barack Obama
Spain Loves Barack Obama
Spain Loves Barack Obama

Hillary Loves Barack Obama
Hillary Loves Barack Obama
Hillary Loves Barack Obama

It is wonderful that the World loves America under the leadership of Barack Obama and looks forward to cooperating with America again in friendship, peace and economics.


Although these early polls are interesting and make great conversation topics they are really worthless. The election is over 5 month away and in politics that is eternity. If we went back 6 months to the beginning of the year the polls were telling us that Obama and McCain did not have a chance to get the nomination. So much for polls and projections before the real campaign and votes are counted.


The price of gas will never be high enough for me to even consider handing the keys to the country over to Obama, Soros, Wright, Farrakhan, Ayers and the rest of Obama’s merry coalition of hard-left haters and socialists.


With all humility and due respect to old man Mc-CANE...is there anyone out there that really sees this as anything more than a foregone conclusion???

I was watching CNN last night and the numbers they were crunching were downright nasty. I thought I heard someone say Obama got more votes than all of the Republican nominees combined?


Where's John McCain's birth certificate? He hasn't released a copy either.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/01/AR2008050103224.html


Hopefully this edges to 14 points when Americans realize John McCain would like to give Exxon Mobil a $1.2 billion dollar tax break... while we wonder whether we should fill or gas tank or fill our plate with food.

McCain, you're a disgrace.


Hey, pollsters you had better wait for a while before saying too much about who is leading. I say about October when all the voter registration is done because that is when all the McCain people will be registered. We will not sit on our hands and let Obama be elected. He will ruin this country.


Christopheur,


We have got to get you introduced to Roger Morris.


As this Nobama's empty suit deflates Americans will come to see him as a person with no experience, no track record and list of Socialist platitudes.


*****
Posted by: Mitch | June 10, 2008 3:13 PM

You may be right, Mitch, but I wouldn't be that optimistic. We are in for an ugly Presidential race. Hillary has already provided the RNC with a lot of ammunition. So, IMHO, I think voting in November, and having to choose between Obama and McCain, could well give voters queasy feelings one might get from having to choose between roasted kitten and barbequed puppy.


"Obama has still not produced his birth certificate. He may not be able to be President. "

Yah, but you have no problem changing/breaking the rules for Arnold. How many times has that been floated around? Conservatives are hypocrites on everything i.e. sex, values, money, the law...


Baaaah Baaaaah go the Obama sheep. We spew whatever is thrown into our heads by the media and we can not think outside of our dimented minds. Baaaah Baaaah. Higher taxes so that we can pay for bums. Baaaah Baaaah. No plans, no vision, we hate America, we want to be like Europe Baaah Baaaah!!! Go F off losers. You are the same people telling us how great the Clintons were in the 90's, but now you throw them under the bus because they are not crazy enough for your agendas. You will not be happy until there is a gay parade every day, no punishment for molesting children, and we are praying 5 times per day on a rug!!!


Well, let’s see. By his own admission, Obama spent his youth doing drugs and making fun of minorities. He hated his grandma and, in his words, held “a pervasive sense of grievance and animosity against my mother’s race.” Then he joined up with Uncle Jeremiah and the Black Nationalist Movement for the next 22 years. McCain served his country and nearly died for it. He loved and respected his family and has lived a well-respected life. Yes, the choice is clear.


The polls are worthless just like that tax and spend liberal Barry Hussein Obamamama!


Please stay at least 10 feet away from Senator McCain. Given he is doing poorly in the polls, his temper is likely to be on edge.


To Keith on the southside, stop watching the cheerleaders for Obama on CNN and try reading a book.....


I wouldn't get too excited on either side. The only poll that counts is the one on November 4. Still plenty of time for these two to trip over themselves. It's gonna be a long 5 months.


Bush was trailing Kerry by 25pts at this time in 2004. We all saw how that turned out. Obama was leading Clinton in polls in SD but still lost. Hillary had the election stolen from her and I will be voting for McCain even though I have never before voted for a Republican. It is sad that a moderate won the Republican party nomination but the moderate lost the Dem nomination to the hard core crazies that are on the far left.


As this Nobama's empty suit deflates Americans will come to see him as a person with no experience, no track record and list of Socialist platitudes.

Posted by: Den C | June 10, 2008 3:51 PM


Yes Denny, we should just stick with that stuffed suit John McBush who want's to stay in Iraq for 100 years and continue to give huge tax breaks to big oil companies and mercenary killing units in Iraq (Halliburton, Blackwater).
Why should we change things when everything is going so swell for us already, right?


Notice how it is a poll of "registered" voters, not LIKELY voters?

In nearly every election, registered democrats are less likely to vote than registered republicans (unless the democrats are voting in alphabetical order, as they so often do).

So, as with most news items that deal with polls, it is meaningless, and probably distorted.


It is sad that a moderate won the Republican party nomination but the moderate lost the Dem nomination to the hard core crazies that are on the far left.

Posted by: Kim | June 10, 2008 5:04 PM


.......which means you were never really a Democrat in the first place..


Get lost, troll!


Another poll shows that Obama has a 100% lead over McCain.

The poll was taken of Swamp journalists.


Hey, pollsters you had better wait for a while before saying too much about who is leading. I say about October when all the voter registration is done because that is when all the McCain people will be registered. We will not sit on our hands and let Obama be elected. He will ruin this country.

Posted by: quills | June 10, 2008 3:45 PM


Are you talking about the "McCainiac's"?
-
http://s144.photobucket.com/albums/r163/InsultComicDog/?action=view¤t=McCain.gif


Yep, they certainly look pretty fired up to me, and McBush's fundraising has been Awesome.....NOT!


A win for Obama will be a win for America. McSAME is four more years of Bush. More war, more drunken sailor spending and yes tax cut for the very rich. This man is a mess. We can't afford McBUSH!!! Obama 2008


Dan C.: I THINK YOU'LL FIND THAT CONCEPT WON'T APPLY this time!!!...so don't hold your breath!!!!


Sorry Doug,

The Swamp censors won't let me answer your question the way I wanted to. Let's see if I can slip by a self-censored version. Here goes:

* * * * *
In answer to your poll musing - will you voting for Rudy or Hillary?

Posted by: Doug Zook | June 10, 2008 3:00 PM

That's a tough one, Doug. I suppose it all depends on whether Giuliani pledges to stop cross-d*******. The idea of having a partially bald guy with a five-o-clock shadow and hairy legs running around the White House in ***** ********* and a sun dress just shakes my confidence. I can't explain it.


It's like that movie The Color of Money, where Tom Cruise tells Paul Newman: "It keeps getting worse" (or was it, "It keeps getting better"?)

Anyway, as I predicted, once the Clintons were forced to leave the stage, the spread in favor of Obama will gradually and very steadily increase.

What are the bookmakers giving on 56% Obama in the GE?


DanC, recall that the night before the Indiana primary Barack drew a crowd of 100,000 in Indianapolis.
No other politician I can recall could draw crowds like that.
So it seems there just may be a little something going on there with Obama that the pollsters don't know how to measure.


John McCain scares me on every level. He seems to have little grasp on economic issues and is more of the same foreign policy. I just don't see why anyone would vote for more of the same.


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